1. Status tungsten industry is to focus on the distribution of profits at both ends - the front and rear ends of tungsten concentrate Carbide Tool: Hand resources upstream, midstream and downstream through smelting and primary processing industry consolidation, grab their profit margins; and the rear end Tool deep-processing enterprises, through continuous product development and innovation, consolidate their oligopolistic position, while enhancing its upstream bargaining power, to maintain and improve product margins.
2. We believe that the future changes in industry profits come from three aspects: First, upstream to downstream in the low-end enterprise resource Carbide eroded corporate profits; the second is a new economic cycle driven by industry demand, supply and demand imbalance push up the price of tungsten; Third, technological advances deep processing enterprises to share part of the back-end profits.
1) the distribution of profits in the industry, profits downstream low-end carbide enterprises were forced to shift to the upstream resource companies. Subject to government regulation, the impact of small mining capacity bottlenecks, the upstream industry concentration will continue to increase. By pre-industry consolidation, "tungsten concentrate - Carbide" link on the prices of upstream resources already fast response; but the "carbide - Tool" link is still weak bargaining power, carbide business industry profits upstream resources will be seized enterprises.
2) profit growth in the industry, promising tungsten demand recovery driven price increases. End demand has a strong cyclical tungsten, domestic and foreign co-led two major features. We believe that under the current circumstances in the foreseeable improvement in global liquidity, foreign demand bottoming out, tungsten due to the larger proportion of external demand, therefore, the elasticity of demand is stronger than copper and other domestic demand-led metal; We are also optimistic about the recovery in the global manufacturing economy, economic cycle bottomed out, therefore, have a strong demand for tungsten cycle characteristics also should be optimistic, supply and demand imbalance promote tungsten prices rose, the upstream resource companies benefit most.
3) In the long run, strengthen the back-end processing products (tool), and be able to participate in international competition, it is the only way to share profits from the rear end of the industrial chain. Global carbide deep-processing backend is oligopoly market, the international giant virtual monopoly on the global high-end three-tool market, its value-added products is ten times or even a hundred tungsten concentrates. Continuous product development and innovation is the core competitiveness of the rear end of the deep processing field. Hand resources, capital and R & D strength of enterprises, is expected first to narrow the technology gap, share oligopoly profits backend international giants.
3. Follow company: We recommend first caught the tip of upstream resources, while concerned about the back-end and efficient tool development, two main lines within the tungsten industry companies seeking investment value. Compare Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Chapter Tungsten (002,378), we believe that both the front and back of two listed companies in the domestic dominance. In contrast, the industrial scale and technological advantages Xiamen Tungsten is more obvious.
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